A viral post on X misleadingly compares total fertility rates based on religion from differing time periods to falsely claim that the current fertility rate among Muslims is at 4.4, while that of Hindus is at 1.94.
BOOM found that the post misleads users by taking the Muslim fertility rate from 1992-1993 National Family Health Survey report, and conflating it with figures from the 2019-2021 data for Hindus, Sikhs, Christians, Jains and Buddhists. The current fertility rates of Hindus and Muslims are 1.94 and 2.36, respectively, while for Sikhs, Christians, Jains and Buddhists the rates are currently at 1.61, 1.88, 1.6, 1.39, respectively.
View an archive of the above post here.
Fact Check
BOOM viewed the latest NFHS report done in 2019-2021, and found discrepancies in the figures provided in the viral post.
While the fertility rates of Hindus, Sikhs, Christians, Jains and Buddhists are correct, the fertility rate provided from Muslims is erronously written as 4.4, while the latest NFHS report mentions it as 2.36.
View the fifth NFHS report (2019-2021) here.
Looking at the past reports, we found that the fertility rate for Muslims provided in the viral post matched the figure provided in the first NFHS report from 1992-1993.
The following table shows the fertility rates by religion from the first and the fifth report for comparison:
Religion
| Total fertility rates (2019-2021)
| Total fertility rates (1992-1994)
|
Hindu
| 1.94
| 3.3
|
Muslim
| 2.36
| 4.4
|
Sikh
| 1.61
| < 3
|
Christian
| 1.8
| < 3
|
Jain
| 1.6
| < 3
|
Buddhist
| 1.39
| < 3
|
Other
| 2.15
|
|
This suggests that the viral posts misleads users by taking the Muslim fertility rate from first NFHS report (1992-1993), and conflating it with figures from the 2019-2021 data for Hindus, Sikhs, Christians, Jains and Buddhists.
While the latest fertility rate for Muslims is higher than other religions, an analysis of the data from the past reports show that the Muslim community has also experienced the sharpest decline in fertility rate.
